If you’re a first-time home buyer in Ottawa or anywhere in Ontario, you’re likely wondering if now is a good time to buy—and what type of mortgage makes sense for you. The Bank of Canada recently announced its latest interest rate decision, and while the rate remained unchanged at 2.75%, that doesn’t mean the housing market is stable.

In fact, it’s quite the opposite.

The Bank of Canada Is Holding Rates—for Now

On July 30, 2025, the Bank of Canada chose not to raise or lower its key interest rate. That might sound uneventful, but it signals uncertainty in the economy. The Bank didn’t release its usual growth and inflation forecast—instead, it presented three potential scenarios depending on how U.S. trade tensions evolve:

• Current Tariff Scenario: Moderate growth ahead, but nothing to celebrate.
  
• Escalation Scenario: If trade tensions worsen, the economy could slow further.
  
• De-escalation Scenario: If things improve, we could see a quicker recovery.

Trade Tensions Are Driving the Uncertainty

Canada and the U.S. failed to reach a trade agreement, and tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. have now jumped to 35%. This has immediate consequences for the economy:

• Canadian exports are down, affecting jobs and business investment.
  
• Household spending is slowing, particularly in trade-linked sectors.
  
• Wage growth is easing, and unemployment is gradually rising.

For buyers in Ottawa and Ontario, this creates a tricky mix: inflation is cooling but not gone, the economy is slowing, and future rate cuts aren’t guaranteed.

What This Means for First-Time Buyers in Ontario

If you’re considering buying a home in Ottawa, Kingston, or anywhere in Ontario:

• Interest rates remain relatively high, affecting your borrowing power.
  
• Uncertainty around inflation and employment makes long-term planning harder.
  
• Lenders may tighten approval criteria as economic risk rises.

That’s why working with a mortgage broker who understands the local market is more important than ever.

How a Mortgage Broker Can Help You Right Now

As an independent mortgage broker, I work for you—not the bank. Here’s how I can help in these uncertain times:

• Access multiple lenders to secure the best rates and terms.
  
• Explain fixed vs. variable rates and which is safer given current conditions.
  
• Provide up-to-date guidance based on policy, trade impacts, and inflation expectations.
  
• Help plan affordability strategies if you’re concerned about job security or rising costs.

Whether you’re looking for a starter home in Ottawa or a condo in the surrounding area, I can help you build a mortgage plan that protects your future.

The Market Might Be Uncertain—But You Don’t Have to Be

The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is scheduled for September 17, 2025, and much could change between now and then. Tariffs might rise, rates may fall—or not. With expert guidance and a smart mortgage strategy, you can move forward with confidence.

Ready to start your journey to homeownership? A quick conversation could save you thousands—and a lot of stress.