After several years of ups and downs, the housing market is starting to shift again. New forecasts suggest 2026 may bring better conditions for buyers across Ontario, including those in Ottawa. At the same time, many households are still feeling financial pressure, which makes good planning essential. Here is what the latest information means for you if you are thinking about buying a home next year.

A More Buyer-Friendly Market Is Taking Shape

Re/Max expects home sales in Canada to rise in 2026 as the market becomes more balanced. One in ten Canadians plans to buy a home in the next year, and many are first-time buyers hoping for better affordability.

Ontario has seen one of the largest increases in listings across the country, especially in major markets. This growing inventory is easing the competition that defined the past few years. Nationally, prices are expected to drop slightly in 2026, which could give Ontario buyers a better chance to purchase without feeling rushed.

Consumer Confidence Remains Low

In the United States, consumer confidence has dropped sharply due to job concerns, inflation and weaker spending. While this is American data, it often reflects broader economic sentiment and influences how Canadians feel about making big financial decisions.

Rising Financial Strain Across Canada

Financial pressure continues to build for many Canadians. Insolvencies rose again in September, with more households turning to debt to cover everyday costs. When budgets can’t keep up, people eventually fall behind.

Bankruptcies are rising too, and Ontario is seeing some of the strongest increases. This highlights how important it is for buyers to choose a mortgage they can manage long-term, especially with today’s higher borrowing costs.

Mixed Trends in Mortgage Delinquencies

Recent data sends two messages. Some reports show mortgage delinquencies rising, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia, as more homeowners face tougher renewal conditions and stretched budgets.

But newer CMHC data shows a slight improvement nationally, with delinquencies falling to 0.22 percent. Even so, Ontario stands out as a province where delinquency rates continue to climb, including a 60 percent year-over-year increase in Toronto.

These mixed results show that while some regions are doing better, many Ontario homeowners are under more pressure than before. With a large wave of renewals coming in late 2025 and 2026, buyers need to prepare carefully.

Interest Rates May Ease in 2026

Economists expect the Bank of Canada may need to cut interest rates further next year. Inflation is cooling, and consumer spending has slowed. Rate cuts are not expected immediately, but conditions are moving in that direction.

Lower rates in 2026 could help make mortgages slightly more affordable for Ottawa and Ontario buyers.

Ontario’s Economy and What Lies Ahead

Canada narrowly avoided a recession this year, but economic growth remains weak. Ontario is feeling this slowdown in areas like retail spending and manufacturing. As inflation continues to ease and trade uncertainty settles, gradual improvement is expected, but the recovery will take time.

What This Means If You Plan to Buy

For buyers in Ottawa and across Ontario, 2026 may offer better opportunities than the past few years. More listings, softer prices and the possibility of lower borrowing costs could make the market more accessible.

But financial stress is real for many households, and Ontario in particular has seen rising debt challenges. This makes it especially important to choose the right mortgage structure and avoid taking on more risk than necessary.

How I Can Support You

As a mortgage broker, I can help you navigate these changing conditions and choose a mortgage that fits your long-term plans. I can help you:

• understand how much you can safely afford
• compare mortgage options that match your needs
• prepare for renewals or purchases in a higher-stress market
• get access to competitive rates and lender options

If you’re hoping to buy in 2026 or want advice ahead of a renewal, I’m here to help you move forward with clarity and confidence.